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Summary
User supplied summary for the plot
All 435 House districts in the 2026 midterms: a waffle of seats ordered from safe-Democratic to safe-Republican with the 218-seat majority line, a hexmap of every district, and per-district probability history from Polymarket prediction markets.
Description
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All 435 House districts on the ballot in the 2026 midterms, seen through prediction-market prices.
Reading the chart
- Waffle (top): one dot per district, ordered from safe-Democratic to safe-Republican. The dashed line marks 218 seats, the majority; dotted lines separate the safe blocks from the districts in play (neither party above ~80%).
- Hexmap (below): one hexagon per congressional district, tessellated into a contiguous US shape — every seat gets equal visual weight, unlike an acreage map where a handful of big rural districts hold most of the ink. Saturated hexes are districts in play; pale hexes are safe. District positions within each state are approximate.
- Panel (right): click any dot or hex for that district's market — current prices, incumbent, traded volume, and daily price history for districts in play. With nothing selected it shows the national House-control market.
Data
- Win probabilities are live prices from Polymarket district markets (Gamma/CLOB APIs), refreshed every 6 hours. Prices are what traders pay, not poll aggregates or forecasts.
- Incumbents from the public-domain congress-legislators dataset (Bioguide-sourced).
- Hexmap: adapted from Pitch Interactive's Tilegrams congressional-district tilegram (ISC licence) — reapportioned to the 2026 seat counts (13 single-hex transfers). District placement within each state follows the Congressional District Hexmap by Daniel Donner for The Downballot (CC BY).
Companion plot: Senate 2026.