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Shortname: PlBRp
Sondov Engen (@sen)1mo ago·permalink
Maybe you want to give it a =politics tag?
Terje Tofteberg (@trt)1 point1mo ago·permalink
It has the tag, it also has a sister plot with the House race
Sondov Engen (@sen)1 point1mo ago·permalink
Really cool, not sure if it will look good but could be interesting to have a colored label on each side of the line chart showing the odds at the start of the year and the latest odds now (I know the latest odds is above, but having it inside the chart would make it even easier)
Terje Tofteberg (@trt)1mo ago·permalink
Good suggestion. This does make it easier to read. Done!
Sondov Engen (@sen)1mo ago·permalink
awesome!

Summary

User supplied summary for the plot

All 100 Senate seats after the 2026 midterms: a waffle of seats ordered from safe-Democratic to safe-Republican, a map of the 35 races, and per-race probability history from Polymarket prediction markets.

Description

The below description is supplied in free-text by the user

Interactive overview of the 2026 US Senate midterms, priced by Polymarket prediction markets. Refreshed every 6 hours until election day, 3 Nov 2026.

What the Senate controls Control decides the president's confirmation pipeline (judges, cabinet, the Fed), the reconciliation fast lane for fiscal bills, and who holds committee subpoena power.

Majority. A 50–50 Senate is not a tie. The Vice President has a tie breaking vote and the Senate would still be Republican.

Supermajority For many cases a supermajority is needed. E.g. to overrule a Presidential veto or impeachment, two-thirds of the votes are needed. 60 votes are needed to end a fillibuster.

Data: Polymarket (Gamma + CLOB APIs) via the senate-2026-refresh job.