All 435 House districts on the ballot in the 2026 midterms, seen through prediction-market prices.

Reading the chart

Waffle (top): one dot per district, ordered from safe-Democratic to safe-Republican. The dashed line marks 218 seats, the majority; dotted lines separate the safe blocks from the districts in play (neither party above ~80%).
Hexmap (below): one hexagon per congressional district, tessellated into a contiguous US shape — every seat gets equal visual weight, unlike an acreage map where a handful of big rural districts hold most of the ink. Saturated hexes are districts in play; pale hexes are safe. District positions within each state are approximate.
Panel (right): click any dot or hex for that district's market — current prices, incumbent, traded volume, and daily price history for districts in play. With nothing selected it shows the national House-control market.

Data

Win probabilities are live prices from Polymarket district markets (Gamma/CLOB APIs), refreshed every 6 hours. Prices are what traders pay, not poll aggregates or forecasts.
Incumbents from the public-domain congress-legislators dataset (Bioguide-sourced).
Hexmap: adapted from Pitch Interactive's Tilegrams congressional-district tilegram (ISC licence) — reapportioned to the 2026 seat counts (13 single-hex transfers). District placement within each state follows the Congressional District Hexmap by Daniel Donner for The Downballot (CC BY).

Companion plot: Senate 2026.